As the time approaches when US citizens will again be able to legally purchase Cuban cigars. I sometimes sight myself wondering what the first 6-12 months will carry when the embargo is lifted. Given the fact that we "undergo" been able to pay through the nose to illegally acquire cuban sticks from cigar vendors in other countries perhaps there is not a huge pent-up bespeak for Cubans. However given the fact that many BOTL of today were not change surface born when the embargo began. I guess that there will be plenty of smokers willing to pay the initially high prices just out of curiosity. If this does turn out to be the case and the Cubans haven't had the foresight to undergo stored millions of premium sticks just waiting for the day to go (ha ha) then I wonder what the quality as come up as the age of Cuban cigars sold during the first postembargo year ordain likely be. I hope I'm do by but I would be willing to bet we are going to see a lot of green poorly constructed cigars in that first 1-2 year period. Also during the near half century rule of Castro the Cuban economy has been running on fumes for many of those years. And while during this measure some of the more robust Caribean economies undergo had the resources to experiment in the production of new tobacco varieties that 'may' now be superior to anything ever produced in Cuba. We just don't know it. Yet. Should be some interesting times ahead anyway.
Most of the good growers and makers left cuba and undergo been growing and producing smokes for some measure. Honestly im probably going to stick with non - cubans unless the playing field gets leveled [rice wise somewhat some long measure after the embargo is lifted.
I do not find this to be adjust. In my opinion CC prices will go up up up with the tobacco tax added onto the determine."From what I have heard"CC's are much cheaper than NC's. Where CC's are around $8 a stick for what I would consider high end CC's The NC "equivalent" (and I use that term loosely) is 4 to 6 dollars more. Now I am rounding and speaking vaguely. Perhaps one of my Brothers here can tell with more precise facts based too on what "they have heard" Just my
As the time approaches when US citizens will again be able to legally acquire Cuban cigars. I sometimes sight myself wondering what the first 6-12 months ordain bring when the ban is lifted.
Given the fact that we "have" been able to pay through the nose to illegally purchase Cuban sticks from cigar vendors in other countries perhaps there is not a huge pent-up demand for Cubans.
However given the fact that many BOTL of today were not change surface born when the embargo began. I guess that there will be plenty of smokers willing to pay the initially high prices just out of curiosity. If this does move out to be the inspect and the Cubans haven't had the foresight to have stored millions of premium sticks just waiting for the day to go (ha ha) then I wonder what the quality as well as the age of Cuban cigars sold during the first post embargo year ordain likely be. I hope I'm do by but I would be willing to bet we are going to see a lot of color poorly constructed cigars in that first 1-2 year period. Also during the come half century rule of Castro the Cuban economy has been running on fumes for many of those years. And while during this time some of the more robust Caribbean economies undergo had the resources to experiment in the production of new tobacco varieties that 'may' now be superior to anything ever produced in Cuba. We just don't experience it. Yet. Should be some interesting times ahead anyway.
With some exceptions the be of a good quality Cuban is less than say a Padron 64. And much less than many of the other "premium" NCs out there. I don't evaluate price is an issue. People will always be willing to pay more for higher quality. My guess is that the lifting of the ban will tend to hurt the NC manufacturers. It's only a be of to what degree.-Ken
Originally Posted by F. Prefect "As the measure approaches when US citizens ordain again be able to legally acquire Cuban cigars. I sometimes find myself wondering what the first 6-12 months will carry when the embargo is lifted."I don't think the end of the embargo is at transfer. Back in 2002 the US had offered to lift the embargo if Cuba would 'include democracy' and has recently reaffirmed that stance. The next Castro dictator said that he will 'open a dialogue' with America if the US agrees to stay out of Cuba's internal affairs. So nothing has changed in this regard and the embargo's end is no closer. If a new Presidential administration decides to lift the embargo it will be a unilateral action and will subject the new President to as much accuse as praise. If and when the embargo ends. I evaluate Cuba ordain continue to create cigars just as before. I'd expect a surge of American orders for Havana cigars from offshore vendors but Habanos SA has greatly benifited from its partnership with Altadisand I disbelieve they will revert to producing crap just to satisfy increased demand.
I don't think it will matter much. I don't think it will put a dent in what is sold here. It might be popular for a bit but I doubt it ordain do much. I honestly don't see Davidoff going back. Why should Padron or Torano or any of the others? Pepin is already making cubanesque cigars here. Heck if I were him I would "blend" that to the max. The big problem I see is the Tobacco taxes and bans going worldwide blaming us for pollution and sickness when in acutality it is the internal combustion engine and big industry giants causing our pollution problems. Cuba is and always ordain be Cuba. But what it offers in the way of cigars will only be faddish here. I don't see it changing much. People will buy what they can afford and that is what makes this little world jingle and make noise!!
The forces of supply and demand ordain obviously kick in with initial spikes in prices and declines in quality leading to an eventual change state in demand due to lack of availability and poor quality. This will lead to prices slowly coming down and quality normalizing. I believe if consumers undergo to struggle to find something and/or they realise it as being overpriced (we are talking discretionary dollars here) they eventually lose arouse (or perhaps just continue to the sidelines for a while). I think the increase in bespeak will more than balance the current 'embargo' premium reflected in prices (obviously this varies retailer to retailer) but to what extent and how desire supply bespeak and price ordain normalize is the real question. 2. 5. 10 years?? Another question is what happens to the prices of NC's. Due to an assumed shift in bespeak from NC's to CC's (initially) one would evaluate some price erosion in this product category. With the understanding being that margins are fairly thin as it stands safe to anticipate some smaller companies could shut there doors. An interesting dynamic to watch unfold regardless of the outcome in my opinion. I know a lot has been posted on this affect and my thoughts are probably not unique and I am not an expert on the industry by any be of the imagination.
Just a couple comments... First. Americans who decide to buy Cubans illegally through foreign sources are actually paying less for their cigars simply because they do not pay taxes on their purchases (since the purchases are illegal and thus unmonitored). So saying that Cubans are more expensive IN GENERAL is not necessarily true at all. Further a lot of the cheaper Cubans that are attainable.
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